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ISSN : 1225-0171(Print)
ISSN : 2287-545X(Online)
Korean Journal of Applied Entomology Vol.64 No.2 pp.69-76
DOI : https://doi.org/10.5656/KSAE.2025.03.0.007

Prediction of Potential Habitat of Hyphantria cunea Under Climate Change in Korea

Ji-won Jeong1, Taechul Park1, SoEun Eom1, Jung-Joon Park1,2*
1Department of Plant Medicine, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju 52828, Korea
2Institute of Agriculture and Biological Science, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju 52828, Korea

Abstract

This study aimed to predict the habitat suitability for the fall webworm (Hyphantria cunea) in South Korea by comprehensively considering key environmental factors, such as climate change and land cover change. First, the MaxEnt model was constructed using global occurrence data to simulate changes in habitat suitability under climate change scenarios. Subsequently, the potential risk areas (PRAs) of Hyphantria cunea in forests and urban areas were analyzed based on land cover changes. The results indicated that suitable habitats for H. cunea are likely to be distributed across most regions of South Korea, excluding the Taebaek Mountain Range and the high-altitude areas of Hallasan Mountain. Under the integrated Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario combinations, the PRA for H. cunea was projected to increase from 66,934 km2 to 67,363 km2 by the 2055s and 2085s under the SSP1. In contrast, under SSP3, the PRA showed a significant decrease from 66,676 km2 to 59,696 km2. However, in all scenarios, the PRA percentage for H. cunea still exceeded 80% of the total land area, highlighting the necessity for continuous control and management of H. cunea. This study underscores the need for sustained management of the widespread H. cunea population in South Korea and provides foundational data for monitoring, early warning, prevention, control, and management of H. cunea. Furthermore, by comprehensively analyzing the effects of climate change and land use change on habitat suitability for H. cunea, the findings are expected to contribute to the development of effective control and management strategies.

초록

Vol. 40 No. 4 (2022.12)

Journal Abbreviation Korean J. Appl. Entomol.
Frequency Quarterly
Doi Prefix 10.5656/KSAE
Year of Launching 1962
Publisher Korean Society of Applied Entomology
Indexed/Tracked/Covered By