A Forecasting Model for the Adult Emergence of Delia antiqua (Diptera: Anthomyiidae) from the Overwintering Pupae and its Field Validation

Yonggyun Shin¹, Chung Gyoo Park², Dong-Soon Kim^1,3*

¹Majors in Plant Resource Sciences & Environment, College of Applied Life Science, SARI, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Korea
²Insect-Verse Laboratory, 33, Jinjuyeok-ro 73beon-gil, Jinju-si 52826, Korea
³The Research Institute for Subtropical Agriculture and Biotechnology, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Korea

Abstract

The onion maggot, Delia antiqua (Diptera: Anthomyiidae), is an important pest of crops belonging to the Allium genus, such as onions and garlic, and is treated as an economic pest in temperate regions worldwide. This study was conducted to develop an emergence model for overwintering pupae of D. antiqua so that the occurrence reference point can be established, resulting in the interpretation of the annual occurrence pattern and the setting of the early control timing. We estimated both linear and non-linear models as development models for overwintered pupae and constructed a forecasting model to predict the adult emergence time of overwintered pupae by combining the development models with a distribution model of development time. For the non-linear models, we used the 3-parameter Lactin equation and also the 4-parameter equation in which the last parameter (λ) were substituted with the intercept of the linear model to enhance linearity at low temperatures. When daily average temperature was used to predict 50% adult emergence, both the degree-day (DD) model based on the linear model and the rate summation model (RS) that accumulates the development rate by applying a linear or nonlinear model showed a large difference from the actual observations. However, when hourly temperature was used as the input variable, the average deviation of the DD model based on the sine curve method, the linear RS model, and the 4-parameter non-linear RS model, except for the 3-parameter model, did not differ by more than 3 days compared to actual observations. Finally, we selected the RS models with the linear model and the 4-parameter non-linear model using hourly temperature data as driving variables. The linear SR model had no deviation from actual observations within 3 days in the two field validation cohorts (1984, 1987). The non-linear RS model was accurate with a deviation of 0.8 days from the 1984 validation but showed an average deviation of 6.5 days in the 1987 cohort.

초록

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Table

Vol. 40 No. 4 (2022.12)

Journal Abbreviation Korean J. Appl. Entomol.
Frequency Quarterly
Doi Prefix 10.5656/KSAE
Year of Launching 1962
Publisher Korean Society of Applied Entomology

Indexed/Tracked/Covered By

Online Submission

submission.entomology2.or.kr

KSAE

The Korean Society of Applied Entomology

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